NOV. 17, 2009 • One of the biggest issues facing subscription games is keeping gamers around for the long haul.  The success of Activision Blizzard’s World of Warcraft has been due to the fact that gamers have been surprisingly loyal to the product for five years.  Other major MMOGs have not fared so well and there are numerous consumers that have tried the product but are no longer current subscribers.

DFC Intelligence recently conducted a survey of 8,000 PC gamers where we asked them about which games they currently subscribe to, which games they subscribed to in the past but are no longer subscribers (lapsed subscriptions), and which games they tried but never subscribed to (trial with no subscription).  Not surprisingly, World of Warcraft fared much better than other products.

The survey was conducted in August 2009 and focused on North America, Europe and the U.K.  Of the more than 5,000 respondents that answered the question, over 76% had at least tried World of Warcraft.  While over 50% of World of Warcraft subscribers described themselves as former, not current, subscribers this ratio was much better than more recent major MMOGs like Warhammer Online and Age of Conan.  Furthermore, in all major markets the percentage of users that tried World of Warcraft but never subscribed was lower than for other products.

Reading the Charts
• Number of gamers that have used a game is the total number people that indicated they were either 1) a current subscriber; 2) a former subscriber; 3) had tried the game but never subscribed.

• Lapsed subscribers is the number of people that described themselves as former subscribers divided by the total number of people that described themselves as current or former subscribers. A lower percentage indicates better performance.

• Trial with No Subscription is the percentage of people that described themselves as having tired the product but never subscribing divided into the total number of people that have tried the product.

Not surprisingly, Club Penguin and Dofus, two free to play games that offer an optional subscription, had the highest percentage of users that tried the game but never subscribed.  However, another free to play product with an optional subscription, Runescape, had a very high percentage of users that actually subscribed to the game.  Furthermore, the number of lapsed subscribers to Runescape was actually not significantly higher than other subscription products.

Of course, some of the older MMOGs such as EverQuest have a large number of lapsed subscribers.  However, the biggest area of concern is the high number of lapsed subscribers for major recent MMOGs such as Age of Conan and Warhammer Online.  These games are not only getting a large number of people to try the product, but they appear to be converting a large number of trial users to subscribers. The problem is they do not appear to be keeping those subscribers around for the long haul.

Clearly a major goal for these games should be to focus on getting lapsed subscribers to return. One issue is a game like Age of Conan had a big initial launch but because the product was filled with glitches, many subscribers left before Funcom could make improvements.

Those lapsed subscribers are a major potential asset for MMOGs. In many cases an MMOG can improve over time as glitches are fixed and new content is added. With the size of investment required for developing and operating an MMOG it makes sense to focus heavily on users that have tried the game or were former subscribers.

For Age of Conan, Funcom is running all kinds of promotions to entice lapsed subscribers to return. The most recent promotion involves offering lapsed subscribers two weeks of free game play during the month of November. A similar promotion was run in July.

Obviously keeping subscriptions going for the long haul is another way to cut down on churn. One of the best ways to keep subscribers around for the long haul is to get them to sign-up for a long-term contract as opposed to having them pay monthly. With Age of Conan anyone that subscribes for three months gets in the open beta for the upcoming Secret World. A one year subscription gets users a free copy of the Rise of the Godslayer expansion.

A game like Modern Warfare 2 depends on a major launch event and rapid initial usage, followed by a fairly sharp decline in usage. And sure enough, many players report finishing the game within six hours. Activision Blizzard actually counts on a decline in usage so that consumers will be ready for the sequel next year.

Online multiplayer features like those in Modern Warfare 2 do help maintain consumer interest in the game, but at a much lower level, with just enough involvement to keep players with the franchise until the sequel arrives. Under the traditional retail model publishers DON’T want users playing their game actively for too long as it means they may not feel a need to buy other products.

The subscription MMOG market is a completely different beast where keeping users around for the long haul is crucial. Age of Conan and Warhammer Online are perhaps indications that a big initial launch may not be the best strategy for these types of products. A more moderate build up over time could lead to higher consumer retention in the long term.