JUNE 10, 2010 • One of the most basic and important metrics for a title is Daily Reach.  Daily Reach tells us how many users accessed a given title on a specific day: single player or multiplayer.  By applying advanced analytical tools to Daily Reach, DFC has been able to accurately determine how well a title has sold on the Xbox 360 based solely on usage.

Daily Reach is important because it allows DFC to model how gamers respond to a major title at release relative to existing games already in circulation.  Our development of these models further permits DFC to classify upcoming titles accurately enough to predict how well the gamerDNA community will respond to them.

Furthermore, by tracking Daily Reach over time it is possible to determine how long the tail for a specific title is likely to be.  This type of analysis is crucial to understand the potential timing and impact of any additional content including downloadable content (DLC), sequels and add-on packs.

Daily Reach examines the number of users per day for each game against the total gamerDNA Xbox 360 community size per day, yielding a rolling relative index in percentage of total gamerDNA audience.  The relative index is adjusted each day to ensure that the index is consistent with the overall user base.

One of the biggest products of all-time was the Activision first person shooter Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 which launched on November 10, 2009.  Obviously, in terms of usage, as measured by Daily Reach, Modern Warfare 2 was dominant, but of course some major questions are: 1) how much did it overshadow other products? and 2) how long did that usage continue?  These issues are critical for any company looking to introduce a competing product around a game as big as Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2.

The Daily Reach for Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 was massive from day one.  For example, the data indicates that on November 14, 2009, 22.81% of all gamerDNA users played Modern Warfare 2 on that day.  This is a huge number and is far above any other product released over the holiday season.

Compare the Daily Reach of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 to two other high-profile competing games released in the same timeframe: Assassin’s Creed II from Ubisoft and Left for Dead 2 from Valve.  These titles were major releases of AAA quality.  Unfortunately they also released one week after Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2.

Daily Reach for Assassin’s Creed II peaked four days after launch at 4.08% and quickly declined to 2.22% by December 1, 2009.  Meanwhile Left 4 Dead 2 had its peak Daily Reach on its launch day of November 17 at 3.33%.  After that period usage declined to a Daily reach of 1.97% by December 1.  Meanwhile on December 1, 2009, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 still had a Daily Reach of a remarkable 16.39%.

Of course, it is obvious that a product like Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 far out-performed all other titles released in its timeframe.  Thus the next question is, how well did Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 compare to other blockbuster products that have been released for the Xbox 360.

Daily Reach is a metric that allows us to compare the usage of products launched in different periods.  It is much more sophisticated metric than simply unit sales because it shows us the longevity of the most popular titles.

Four of the most popular shooters for the Xbox 360 in recent years have been Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, its predecessor Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare, Halo 3: ODST from Microsoft and Gears of War 2, also from Microsoft.

What becomes clear is that the Daily Reach pattern for Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare was similar to that of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, albeit at a lower overall usage level.  Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 peaked at a Daily Reach of 23% and after a month had leveled off to a steady Daily Reach of 15-17%.  Meanwhile Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare had a lower peak of 17%, but after a month had a steady Daily Reach of 11-12%.

Compare this with Gears of War 2 and Halo 3: ODST.  Gears of War 2, launched in November 2008, had an initial Daily Reach of 20%, competitive with that of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2.  However, usage rapidly declined and only a month after release Daily Reach for Gears of War 2 was only 6%.  The drop off for Halo 3: ODST was even more dramatic.  Halo 3: ODST peaked at a Daily Reach of 13% shortly after launch, but quickly declined to only about 1% after only a month.

Clearly usage of Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare as measured by Daily Reach was a sign that a sequel was set for explosive sales.  The success of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 was indicated not just by unit sales for its predecessor, but the high level of usage that product was able to maintain long after the initial excitement had worn off.

By applying some analytical tools to Daily Reach launch curves from all Xbox 360 titles, regardless of genre or release window, it is possible to develop initial monthly sales forecasting models for the U.S., Canada, the U.K. and some other European markets with a significant English speaking population.  Using gamerDNA, DFC accurately forecasted November 2009 sales of Modern Warfare 2 on Xbox 360 in the U.S. at 4.2 million units several days before actual sales data was released.

Since the November 2009 launch of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, no title has come even close in terms of Daily Reach.  Most popular titles have a Daily Reach that peaks in the 5% range.  Many major titles have a Daily Reach of less than 2%.  So to do analysis of most products it is important to use an entirely different scale.  One of the most successful Xbox 360 launches in recent months has been Red Dead Redemption, which is clearly outperforming all titles released in its launch window.

In May 2010 Take 2 Interactive launched the highly anticipated Red Dead Redemption on the same day Microsoft launched the cerebral action-thriller Alan Wake.  While initial sales figures are not yet in, we are able to safely say that Red Dead Redemption will significantly outperform all other May released including Alan Wake.

The Daily Reach for Alan Wake peaked at 1.91% and was 1.2% by May 25, 2010.  In comparison Red Dead Redemption quickly gained a Daily Reach of over 9% and on May 25th, 8.66% of gamerDNA users played Red Dead Redemption.  Other major titles like Iron Man 2 and Prince of Persia: The Forgotten Sands had only a fraction of the usage level.  For comparison purposes, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 was able to maintain a Daily Reach of about 6% through the month of May.

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