DFC’s Annual Market Report and Forecast Projects Console and PC Gaming’s Winners and Losers; Nearly 4 Billion Gamers Worldwide Will Spend >$200 Billion Next Year
DFC Intelligence, the longest standing research and advisory firm focused exclusively on the video game industry, published its 2024 market report and forecast today, projecting major revenue growth for the second half of the decade while also highlighting significant risk for one of the three major console manufacturers. Following record growth from 2020 to 2022, a post-COVID slump saw revenues drop for two consecutive years (the first consecutive annual decreases since 1984-’85), the PC and console game software market will grow significantly, from US$72 billion in 2024 to US$83 billion in 2028. And when PC and console hardware and iOS/Android game revenues are factored, the overall video game industry will reach nearly a third of a trillion dollars by 2028.
Combined with gaming hardware revenues (which at $82 billion in 2024 surpassed software for the second year in a row), the overall console and PC games industry will reach $203 billion in 2028. And while Nintendo will be the major winner among console makers, either Sony’s or Microsoft’s next generation system will fail to gain significant market share.
“Over the past three decades, the video game industry has grown more than 20x, and after two years of slumping hardware and software sales, it’s poised to resume growing at a healthy rate through the end of the decade,” said DFC Intelligence founder and CEO David Cole. “While 2025 will mark the beginning of that upward trajectory, some huge questions remain, including who will lose the next-gen console war and who will win the game software distribution battle. And with the large publishers focused on live services around evergreen franchises, opportunities for smaller studios will be plentiful.”
Highlights of DFC’s new report/forecast include (full executive summary available here):
- Massive Audience: More than 3.8 billion people worldwide played video games in 2024, and that figure is expected to exceed 4 billion players by 2027 – nearly half the global population.
- Console Wars Next Round: Nintendo will be the clear winner in the next generation of new consoles, due largely to a combination of earlier availability and limited competition. DFC projects that Nintendo will sell 15-17 million units of its new console system in 2025, and more than 80 million units by 2028.
- Console Wars Casualty: There isn’t room for more than two major console systems. Sony or Microsoft will struggle mightily in a distant third place – largely depending on which of those companies can gain early momentum.
- Software Sales Ongoing Seismic Shift: Revenues from add-on content (not including subscription services) for PC and console games will continue to exceed revenues from new game sales – a turning point that was first reached in 2022.
- Hardware Sales Surge: PC and console hardware spending will continue to outpace software spending, a trend that began in 2023. Combined, the PC console hardware and software revenues will approach $203 billion in 2028. When mobile game revenues are added (approx. $75 billion in 2023 according to Sensor Tower), the global video game market will reach nearly a third of a trillion dollars by 2028.
- Distribution Dominates: Control of distribution will be contentious among all large players in the games space. This includes Valve, Sony, Microsoft, Epic, Nintendo, Amazon, Google, Nvidia and other companies that directly reach consumers. In addition, community relations, company reputation, PR, sophisticated guerrilla marketing, product tie-ins and other marketing expertise will become increasingly important as the field is overcrowded with high quality games.
Additional data from DFC’s full 2024 video game market report and forecast will be provided in upcoming issues of DFC’s free newsletter. To request a briefing or copy of the report contact DFC here.
About DFC Intelligence
Founded in 1995 by a team of veteran management consultants including current CEO David Cole, DFC Intelligence is the oldest research firm dedicated specifically to the video game industry. DFC’s decades of market data and expertise, coupled with its forward-looking approach to analysis and guidance, has attracted a stellar client base that includes nearly every major hardware and software provider in and around the video game industry. DFC has covered every significant development in gaming since the dawn of the internet, from Games as a Service (GaaS) to VR/AR, the metaverse, and AI – and in many cases has accurately predicted the biggest market shifts, from milestone tech advancements to changing consumer behavior.
