For its fourth fiscal quarter ending 3/31/2023, Nintendo (7974.T-JP: Tokyo) (NTDOY: OTC) reported revenue was down year-over-year 18% to ¥306,499 million. For the full fiscal year 2023, revenue was down 6% to ¥1,601,677 million.
Switch hardware sales for the fiscal 2023 were 18 million versus 23 million in fiscal 2022. Software unit sales were down 9% to 214 million units.
For fiscal 2024, Nintendo is forecasting sales to be down 9.5% and net profit down 21.4%. Nintendo is forecasting Switch hardware to decline 17% to 15 million units with software declining 16% to 180 million units.
Analysis
It has become obvious that the Switch is on its down cycle and Nintendo needs a new system. The good news is there is still some life left in the Switch. However, Nintendo may find it challenging to reach its forecast for fiscal 2024.
Nintendo is expecting to ship 15 million Switch units in fiscal 2024, versus 18 million in FY 23. DFC Intelligence is forecasting 12 million units for the Switch in that period. Last year, Nintendo was similarly bullish, initially forecasting 21 million Switch units versus DFC’s forecast of 18 million.
Where Nintendo is doing well is on the software side. Big games continue to do well. Unfortunately, the number of new titles is limited. The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom, launching this week, is the biggest title. After that there is only Pikmin 4 releasing on 7/21 (also a possible Metroid title with no release date)
The question now is when Nintendo will announce a new platform. The latest DFC forecasts have slotted in a release date of late 2024. However, this is only speculation on our part. If this is the case we may not see an official announcement until early to mid-2024.
